Physical Media is So Not Dead

I've been meaning to reply to Steve Rubel's post of earlier this month for some time -- namely, his thesis that within five years, non-digital media will be dead or almost dead. To wit:

I want to make a bet with you today. By January 2014 I will wager that in the US almost all forms of tangible media will either be in sharp decline or completely extinct. I am not just talking about print, but all tangible forms of media - newspapers, magazines, books, DVDs, boxed software and video games.

I like the boldness of his assertion, but I'm here to say that I disagree. But as the P-E (prez-elect) would say, first, let me point out our areas of agreement. I agree that sooner or later -- maybe within five years -- media used to simply distribute content will be all but gone: DVDs, video games, boxed software. Books I would say is a toss-up.

But for value-added media -- newspapers and magazines -- I'll once again say that these physical media are not going anywhere soon. The difference is that each of these contains valued-added material for which the distribution method is still important. Yes, news and opinion will flourish online, but there will still be value to consumers to pick up a newspaper or magazine, bring it to the pool or the breakfast table, and read it. You can't do that with a computer screen, whether it is your cell phone, PDA or laptop. They are alternatives, but not substitutes.

Are big metro dailies and weekly news magazines in deep doo-doo? You betcha. But that's more about their antique business models than about their distribution method. I believe that these media will evolve or die in the next 10 to 20 years. But other forms of printed news and information will continue to play a role in society for many years to come.